CALIBRE / REPORTS·ORACLE V1.7 CORE
AS OF 2026-01-10·n=490
Institutional Disclosure
Oracle V1.7 CORE — Performance Reports
RAW JSON · n=490RAW CSVFull Report JSONwalk-forwardtierstemporalleaguesodds-bracketsmarket-efficiencyrisk-summarybenchmarkswarnings
1. Walk-Forward Validation
| Window | n | Win Rate | ROI | CLV+ Rate | p-Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training (first 60% of settled signals) | 294 | 50.34% | +20.72% | 100.00% | < 0.001 |
| Validation (next 20%) | 98 | 54.08% | +43.54% | 100.00% | < 0.001 |
| Out-of-sample (final 20%) | 98 | 44.90% | +13.42% | 100.00% | 0.0152 |
2. Tier Performance
| Tier | Edge Thresh. | Avg Odds | Avg CLV | Yield / 100 | Max Cons. Losses | Recovery | Sharpe | Sortino | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORE | 1.03% | 2.36 | 12.26% | 24.26% | 6 | 2 signals | 1.89 | 6.54 | 490 |
3. Temporal Stability · Monthly Cohorts
| Month | ROI | CLV+ Rate | Rolling 30d WR | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | +59.32% | 100.00% | 62.10% | 29 |
| 2024-09 | +7.31% | 100.00% | 43.50% | 46 |
| 2024-10 | -22.48% | 100.00% | 51.50% | 33 |
| 2024-11 | +3.66% | 100.00% | 43.80% | 48 |
| 2024-12 | +32.62% | 100.00% | 64.70% | 34 |
| 2025-01 | +12.51% | 100.00% | 48.60% | 37 |
| 2025-02 | +78.80% | 100.00% | 56.10% | 41 |
| 2025-03 | -8.76% | 100.00% | 32.40% | 37 |
| 2025-04 | +5.30% | 100.00% | 60.70% | 28 |
| 2025-05 | +73.59% | 100.00% | 55.30% | 47 |
| 2025-08 | +12.08% | 100.00% | 52.60% | 19 |
| 2025-09 | +29.11% | 100.00% | 46.90% | 32 |
| 2025-10 | -12.30% | 100.00% | 41.20% | 17 |
| 2025-11 | -14.16% | 100.00% | 50.00% | 24 |
| 2025-12 | -3.70% | 100.00% | 33.30% | 12 |
| 2026-01 | +163.29% | 100.00% | 50.00% | 6 |
4. League-Level Breakdown
| League | n | Win Rate | ROI | CLV+ Rate | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 73 | 53.42% | +17.69% | 100.00% | Include |
| E0 | 34 | 50.00% | +55.37% | 100.00% | Include |
| F1 | 85 | 43.53% | +17.32% | 100.00% | Include |
| I1 | 91 | 49.45% | +22.33% | 100.00% | Include |
| SP1 | 120 | 47.50% | +27.26% | 100.00% | Include |
| T1 | 87 | 57.47% | +21.89% | 100.00% | Include |
5. Odds Range Analysis
| Bracket | n | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 – 2.00 | 41 | 61.00% | +18.50% |
| 2.00 – 3.00 | 380 | 50.80% | +22.90% |
| 3.00 – 5.00 | 69 | 39.10% | +29.46% |
| 5.00 – 10.00 | 0 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| 10.00+ | 0 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
6. Market Efficiency · Aggregate + Sample
CLV+ @ Close
100.00%
Avg CLV
12.26%
ρ (edge, CLV)
0.43
| Signal | Open | Close | Model p | Edge @ Open | CLV @ Close | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-10 · Kasimpasa vs Konyaspor | 2.07 | 1.87 | 0.5069 | +2.40% | +10.70% | Toward |
| 2024-08-12 · Bodrumspor vs Gaziantep | 2.12 | 1.79 | 0.5114 | +4.00% | +18.44% | Toward |
| 2024-08-12 · Rizespor vs Buyuksehyr | 2.07 | 1.76 | 0.5276 | +4.50% | +17.61% | Toward |
| 2024-08-15 · Ath Bilbao vs Getafe | 2.12 | 1.76 | 0.4997 | +2.80% | +20.45% | Toward |
| 2024-08-17 · Kayserispor vs Sivasspor | 2.09 | 1.92 | 0.5200 | +4.20% | +8.85% | Toward |
| 2024-08-17 · Newcastle vs Southampton | 3.12 | 2.85 | 0.3723 | +5.20% | +9.47% | Toward |
| 2024-08-18 · Gaziantep vs Samsunspor | 2.85 | 2.43 | 0.3918 | +4.10% | +17.28% | Toward |
| 2024-08-18 · Verona vs Napoli | 2.08 | 1.93 | 0.5051 | +2.40% | +7.77% | Toward |
7. Risk Metrics
| Metric | CORE |
|---|---|
| Total signals | 490 |
| Win rate | 50.00% |
| ROI | +24.26% |
| Yield (flat stake) | +24.26% |
| Max drawdown | -12.50% |
| Avg drawdown | 15.45% |
| Sharpe ratio (ann.) | 3.09 |
| Sortino ratio (ann.) | 6.54 |
| CLV+ rate | 100.00% |
| Avg CLV | +12.26% |
| p-value (vs. null p=1/3) | 0.0026 |
| Statistical edge | Significant vs. null |
8. Benchmark Comparison
| Benchmark | Win Rate | ROI | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Random baseline (reference) | 50.00% | -5% | Illustrative flat-stake friction assumption |
| Pinnacle-implied consensus (proxy) | 52.00% | -2.5% | After typical margin / fee load |
| Public signal aggregate (industry proxy) | 48.00% | -3% | Survey-style composite |
| Legacy model (pre-V1) | 45.00% | +27% | Historical reference; different market scope |
| Oracle V1.7 CORE (settled signals, all tiers) | 50.00% | +24.26% | Computed from n=490 settled signal records |
Methodology·Live Performance·Contact
This report is prepared for qualified institutional counterparties. Past model output performance does not guarantee future results. Metrics are derived from Oracle V1.7 CORE signal records in the Calibre data store.