Institutional disclosure

Oracle V3 — Performance Reports

Oracle V3 · LightGBM + Pinnacle anchor · 1X2 away specialization · La Liga, Premier League, Serie A · 1X2 Away

As of 2025-05-25 · Walk-forward split: 60% train / 20% validation / 20% OOS on chronological settled signals. CLV = odds_taken/pinnacle_close − 1.

Download JSON CSV: walk-forward CSV: tiers CSV: temporal CSV: leagues CSV: odds-brackets CSV: market-efficiency CSV: risk-summary CSV: benchmarks CSV: warnings

Executive summary

This executive summary is generated from 342 settled Oracle V3 signal records in the Oracle Analytics store. Portfolio-level ROI is 28.07% on recorded flat stakes. Walk-forward partitions and tier tables below are derived from the same source; no illustrative performance figures are used. Automated flags indicate segments with limited sample size or weak significance vs. the stated null; interpret accordingly.

This report is prepared for qualified institutional counterparties. Past model output performance does not guarantee future results. Metrics are derived from Oracle V3 signal records in the Oracle Analytics data store.

1. Walk-forward validation

Window	n	Win rate	ROI	CLV+ rate	p-value
Training (first 60% of settled signals)	205	58.536585365853654%	43.205695719275425%	83.41463414634146%	1.9539925233402755e-14
Validation (next 20%)	68	44.11764705882353%	11.577502907359257%	79.41176470588235%	0.059229574389242146
Out-of-sample (final 20%)	69	40.57971014492754%	10.565752047334447%	82.6086956521739%	0.2016430599532475

2. Tier performance

Tier	Edge thresh.	Avg odds	Avg CLV	Yield / 100	Max cons. losses	Recovery	Sharpe	Sortino	n
PLATINUM	3.82%	2.596	13.09%	84.39%	5	1 signals	1.6462561893000216	2.136983895964983	21
GOLD	2.52%	2.585	7.97%	19.05%	6	2 signals	2.4983175060558453	3.1366143603786916	179
SILVER	3.26%	2.784	7.51%	30.7%	5	2 signals	3.502916015634024	3.3633792013127506	142

3. Temporal stability (monthly cohorts)

Monthly ROI std. dev.: 29.53% — Std. dev. of monthly ROI across cohorts; lower dispersion indicates steadier edge through time.

Month	ROI	CLV+ rate	Rolling 30d WR	n
2024-08	40.84%	75%	62.5%	24
2024-09	36.28%	80.6%	58.3%	36
2024-10	47.45%	90.6%	50%	32
2024-11	32.51%	88.9%	50%	36
2024-12	38.27%	76.2%	59.5%	42
2025-01	29.79%	84.3%	58.8%	51
2025-02	49.24%	80.6%	55.6%	36
2025-03	-35.54%	78.1%	28.1%	32
2025-04	-5.06%	76.7%	36.7%	30
2025-05	67.65%	95.7%	56.5%	23

4. League-level breakdown

League	n	Win rate	ROI	CLV+ rate	Recommendation
La Liga	124	51.6%	35.42%	77.4%	Include
Premier League	128	47.7%	27.21%	82.8%	Include
Serie A	90	58.9%	20.58%	88.9%	Include

5. Odds range analysis

Bracket	n	Win rate	ROI
1.50 – 2.00	80	63.7%	15.26%
2.00 – 3.00	148	54.1%	38.65%
3.00 – 5.00	112	42%	31.63%
5.00 – 10.00	2	0%	-100%
10.00+	0	0%	0%

Strongest sustained edge in the 3.00–5.00 implied range (see methodology for line-move controls).

6. Market efficiency (aggregate + sample)

CLV+ at close

82.5%

Avg CLV

8.09%

ρ (edge, CLV)

0.187

Signal	Open	Close	Model p	Edge @ open	CLV @ close	Move
cc2f672e-202a-4160-a4f1-5dda53e6a58a	1.71	1.6300000000000001	0.6455542629418541	6.1%	4.91%	toward
1b135edc-789c-4ae3-842b-3ecadcfc630a	1.71	1.6300000000000001	0.6455542629418541	6.1%	4.91%	toward
e665cc35-cfb0-4d84-8e66-5fcda8910d34	1.79	1.71	0.6260255696997841	6.7%	4.68%	toward
4fca1649-1787-438b-9d4f-0cc73dedffd9	1.79	1.71	0.6260255696997841	6.7%	4.68%	toward
2707cd4b-7c21-4401-98f0-fe91b120c7ee	2.71	2.4	0.4165725508525194	4.8%	12.92%	toward
1ad951d7-b086-48f9-b8c2-bb04377e723a	2.71	2.4	0.4165725508525194	4.8%	12.92%	toward
b55e9b54-4837-4024-b87f-ad999210fba2	2.71	2.4	0.4165725508525194	4.8%	12.92%	toward
fb2b2ebd-5b01-46df-a48d-95a91a2ab619	3.07	3.3	0.3583945145149575	3.3%	-6.97%	away

7. Risk metrics (executive summary)

Metric	PLATINUM	GOLD	SILVER
Total signals	21	179	142
Win rate	71.4%	49.2%	52.8%
ROI	+84.4%	+19.0%	+30.7%
Yield (flat stake)	+84.4%	+19.0%	+30.7%
Max drawdown	-22.4%	-102.4%	-87.3%
Avg drawdown	4.5%	11.2%	11.8%
Sharpe ratio (ann.)	1.65	2.5	3.5
Sortino ratio (ann.)	2.14	3.14	3.36
CLV+ rate	100.0%	84.4%	77.5%
Avg CLV	+13.09%	+7.97%	+7.51%
p-value (vs. null p=1/3)	0.0002	0.0000	0.0000
Statistical edge	Significant vs. null	Significant vs. null	Significant vs. null

8. Benchmark comparison

Benchmark	Win rate	ROI	Notes
Random baseline (reference)	50%	-5%	Illustrative flat-stake friction assumption
Pinnacle-implied consensus (proxy)	52%	-2.5%	After typical margin / fee load
Public signal aggregate (industry proxy)	48%	-3%	Survey-style composite
Oracle V2 (legacy)	45%	+27%	Historical reference; different market scope
Oracle V3 (settled signals, all tiers)	52%	+28.1%	Computed from n=342 settled signal records

Methodology · Live performance · Contact