Calibre v1.7 Full

Team-level attack/defense rating vector estimated by maximum likelihood on bivariate Poisson match scores, with the Dixon-Coles τ correction rebalancing mass in the low-scoring cells (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1) where naive Poisson structurally under-fits. Exponential time-decay weights (ξ) bias fit toward recent form without discarding sample size. Outputs feed the full scoreline matrix used by both 1X2 and Under 2.5 pricing.

Gradient-boosted residual learners stacked on top of the Dixon-Coles prior. LightGBM (histogram, leaf-wise) captures dense low-latency features; XGBoost (level-wise, depth-capped) handles sparse interaction terms. Blended by inverse-variance weighting on a held-out fold. L1/L2 regularization, feature-subsampling, and monotonic constraints hold in-sample performance deliberately close to OOS.

Open-to-close divergence gate on the sharpest book in the market. Signal fires only when institutional flow confirms the Dixon-Coles edge — i.e., Pinnacle moves the line toward our prior between open and close. Rejects reflexive moves driven by retail volume. No signal survives without independent market confirmation.

EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Super Lig. Markets: 1X2 + Asian Handicap (full and quarter) + Over/Under 2.5. Deep alpha concentration in high-odds Under 2.5 (3.00–5.00+) where defensive-solidity mispricing is most persistent.