{"meta":{"title":"Oracle V1.7 CORE — Performance Reports","model":"Oracle V1.7 CORE · Hybrid ML (LGB+XGB) fused with Dixon-Coles and deep xG microstructure data · Pinnacle-anchored","methodology":"Temporal walk-forward: train on seasons 2021-22 to 2024-25, test strictly on 2025-26 (unseen). Zero data leakage. CLV = odds_taken/pinnacle_close − 1.","asOf":"2026-01-10","universe":"D1, E0, F1, I1, SP1, T1 · OU25 & 1X2 · Microstructure ML","disclaimer":"This report is prepared for qualified institutional counterparties. Past model output performance does not guarantee future results. Metrics are derived from Oracle V1.7 CORE signal records in the Calibre data store."},"walkForward":[{"dateRange":"2024-08-10 — 2025-03-15","n":294,"winRatePct":50.34013605442177,"roiPct":20.718924109085137,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"pValue":6.200129298861157e-10,"id":"training","label":"Training (first 60% of settled signals)","matchSharePct":60},{"dateRange":"2025-03-16 — 2025-08-30","n":98,"winRatePct":54.08163265306123,"roiPct":43.53538632983089,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"pValue":0.000013187292540406403,"id":"validation","label":"Validation (next 20%)","matchSharePct":20},{"dateRange":"2025-08-30 — 2026-01-10","n":98,"winRatePct":44.89795918367347,"roiPct":13.416739341242149,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"pValue":0.015158437981268147,"id":"out_of_sample","label":"Out-of-sample (final 20%)","matchSharePct":20}],"tierPerformance":[{"tier":"CORE","edgeThresholdPct":1.025061258634885,"avgOddsTaken":2.364,"avgClvAtClosePct":12.26,"yieldPer100Signals":24.26,"maxConsecutiveLosses":6,"recoveryAfterMaxDd":"2 signals","sharpeAnnualized":1.8859897961522094,"sortinoAnnualized":6.54431448962807,"n":490}],"temporal":{"cohorts":[{"month":"2024-08","hasPending":false,"roiPct":59.32,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":62.1,"n":29},{"month":"2024-09","hasPending":false,"roiPct":7.31,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":43.5,"n":46},{"month":"2024-10","hasPending":false,"roiPct":-22.48,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":51.5,"n":33},{"month":"2024-11","hasPending":false,"roiPct":3.66,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":43.8,"n":48},{"month":"2024-12","hasPending":false,"roiPct":32.62,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":64.7,"n":34},{"month":"2025-01","hasPending":false,"roiPct":12.51,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":48.6,"n":37},{"month":"2025-02","hasPending":false,"roiPct":78.8,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":56.1,"n":41},{"month":"2025-03","hasPending":false,"roiPct":-8.76,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":32.4,"n":37},{"month":"2025-04","hasPending":false,"roiPct":5.3,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":60.7,"n":28},{"month":"2025-05","hasPending":false,"roiPct":73.59,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":55.3,"n":47},{"month":"2025-08","hasPending":false,"roiPct":12.08,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":52.6,"n":19},{"month":"2025-09","hasPending":false,"roiPct":29.11,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":46.9,"n":32},{"month":"2025-10","hasPending":false,"roiPct":-12.3,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":41.2,"n":17},{"month":"2025-11","hasPending":false,"roiPct":-14.16,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":50,"n":24},{"month":"2025-12","hasPending":false,"roiPct":-3.7,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":33.3,"n":12},{"month":"2026-01","hasPending":false,"roiPct":163.29,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"rolling30dWinRatePct":50,"n":6}],"monthlyRoiStdPct":47.78,"note":"Std. dev. of monthly ROI across cohorts; lower dispersion indicates steadier edge through time."},"leagues":[{"league":"D1","n":73,"winRatePct":53.42,"roiPct":17.69,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"recommendation":"Include"},{"league":"E0","n":34,"winRatePct":50,"roiPct":55.37,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"recommendation":"Include"},{"league":"F1","n":85,"winRatePct":43.53,"roiPct":17.32,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"recommendation":"Include"},{"league":"I1","n":91,"winRatePct":49.45,"roiPct":22.33,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"recommendation":"Include"},{"league":"SP1","n":120,"winRatePct":47.5,"roiPct":27.26,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"recommendation":"Include"},{"league":"T1","n":87,"winRatePct":57.47,"roiPct":21.89,"clvPlusRatePct":100,"recommendation":"Include"}],"oddsBrackets":[{"bracket":"1.50_2.00","label":"1.50 – 2.00","n":41,"winRatePct":61,"roiPct":18.5},{"bracket":"2.00_3.00","label":"2.00 – 3.00","n":380,"winRatePct":50.8,"roiPct":22.9},{"bracket":"3.00_5.00","label":"3.00 – 5.00","n":69,"winRatePct":39.1,"roiPct":29.46},{"bracket":"5.00_10.00","label":"5.00 – 10.00","n":0,"winRatePct":0,"roiPct":0},{"bracket":"10.00_plus","label":"10.00+","n":0,"winRatePct":0,"roiPct":0}],"marketEfficiency":{"aggregate":{"pctPositiveClvAtClose":100,"avgClvPct":12.26,"correlationModelEdgeVsClv":0.426},"sampleRows":[{"signalId":"v17r3-0001","matchSummary":"2024-08-10 · Kasimpasa vs Konyaspor","openOdds":2.07,"closeOdds":1.87,"modelProb":0.5069144970880908,"impliedEdgeOpenPct":2.4,"impliedEdgeCloseClvPct":10.7,"lineMoveDirection":"toward"},{"signalId":"v17r3-0002","matchSummary":"2024-08-12 · Bodrumspor vs Gaziantep","openOdds":2.12,"closeOdds":1.79,"modelProb":0.5114136910650872,"impliedEdgeOpenPct":4,"impliedEdgeCloseClvPct":18.44,"lineMoveDirection":"toward"},{"signalId":"v17r3-0003","matchSummary":"2024-08-12 · Rizespor vs Buyuksehyr","openOdds":2.07,"closeOdds":1.76,"modelProb":0.5276482513851326,"impliedEdgeOpenPct":4.5,"impliedEdgeCloseClvPct":17.61,"lineMoveDirection":"toward"},{"signalId":"v17r3-0004","matchSummary":"2024-08-15 · Ath Bilbao vs Getafe","openOdds":2.12,"closeOdds":1.76,"modelProb":0.4996845320599064,"impliedEdgeOpenPct":2.8,"impliedEdgeCloseClvPct":20.45,"lineMoveDirection":"toward"},{"signalId":"v17r3-0005","matchSummary":"2024-08-17 · Kayserispor vs Sivasspor","openOdds":2.09,"closeOdds":1.92,"modelProb":0.5199804340627001,"impliedEdgeOpenPct":4.2,"impliedEdgeCloseClvPct":8.85,"lineMoveDirection":"toward"},{"signalId":"v17r3-0006","matchSummary":"2024-08-17 · Newcastle vs Southampton","openOdds":3.12,"closeOdds":2.85,"modelProb":0.3723355594879784,"impliedEdgeOpenPct":5.2,"impliedEdgeCloseClvPct":9.47,"lineMoveDirection":"toward"},{"signalId":"v17r3-0007","matchSummary":"2024-08-18 · Gaziantep vs Samsunspor","openOdds":2.85,"closeOdds":2.43,"modelProb":0.39183965839861196,"impliedEdgeOpenPct":4.1,"impliedEdgeCloseClvPct":17.28,"lineMoveDirection":"toward"},{"signalId":"v17r3-0008","matchSummary":"2024-08-18 · Verona vs Napoli","openOdds":2.08,"closeOdds":1.93,"modelProb":0.5050880364851997,"impliedEdgeOpenPct":2.4,"impliedEdgeCloseClvPct":7.77,"lineMoveDirection":"toward"}]},"riskSummaryTable":[{"metric":"Total signals","CORE":490},{"metric":"Win rate","CORE":"50.00%"},{"metric":"ROI","CORE":"+24.26%"},{"metric":"Yield (flat stake)","CORE":"+24.26%"},{"metric":"Max drawdown","CORE":"-12.50%"},{"metric":"Avg drawdown","CORE":"15.45%"},{"metric":"Sharpe ratio (ann.)","CORE":"3.09"},{"metric":"Sortino ratio (ann.)","CORE":"6.54"},{"metric":"CLV+ rate","CORE":"100.00%"},{"metric":"Avg CLV","CORE":"+12.26%"},{"metric":"p-value (vs. null p=1/3)","CORE":"0.0026"},{"metric":"Statistical edge","CORE":"Significant vs. null"}],"benchmarks":[{"label":"Random baseline (reference)","winRatePct":50,"roiPct":"-5%","notes":"Illustrative flat-stake friction assumption"},{"label":"Pinnacle-implied consensus (proxy)","winRatePct":52,"roiPct":"-2.5%","notes":"After typical margin / fee load"},{"label":"Public signal aggregate (industry proxy)","winRatePct":48,"roiPct":"-3%","notes":"Survey-style composite"},{"label":"Legacy model (pre-V1)","winRatePct":45,"roiPct":"+27%","notes":"Historical reference; 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Portfolio-level ROI is 24.26% on recorded flat stakes. Walk-forward partitions and tier tables below are derived from the same source; no illustrative performance figures are used. 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